Hugo Ferreira Braga Tadeu, Jersone Tasso Moreira Silva
econometric models, private investment, productivity, simmulation models
Empirical studies regarding the productivity in developing countries, including Brazil, have demonstrated the negative impact of high inflation rates on the economic performance. However, the recent Brazilian experience clearly shows that stabilization, in and of itself, is not capable of recovering the investment rates. With this in mind, this study's goal is to answer, with the help of econometric simulation models, the questions: (i) what are the key-drivers to assess the Brazilian economy?; and (ii) what are the key-factors to be considered when investments are made, particulary in technology to impact the productivity growth? To answer the questions we evaluated the impacts of macro-economic variables on private investments, using a strategic bias and a long term vision plan. The estimates demonstrate empirical crowding-in evidence of public investments over private investments as a real impact to productivity, considering technology as a key driver for growth. As for public invetsments we suggest that the crowding-in impact dislocates private investments. All these indicators were obtained as presented in the therory, with the exception of the real interest rates variable (r), in which we observed that the coefficient is positive and insignificant in the estimated equation.
Cite this paper
Hugo Ferreira Braga Tadeu, Jersone Tasso Moreira Silva. (2017) Productivity in Brazil in the Period 1996-2016: The Technology Impact for Economic Growth. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems, 2, 187-197